Population Projections in Lithuania are being presented at the State Data Agency (Statistics Lithuania)
The State Data Agency begins publishing projections of the resident population at the national level that reflect Lithuania’s specific demographic development and are based on advanced methodological practices. Internationally produced demographic projections by the United Nations, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) and other institutions make it possible to approximately estimate demographic changes for the world, regions, or individual countries, but a methodology based on broad global changes and modelling does not always accurately capture national particularities of the countries. For this reason, those estimates can be less accurate in Lithuania’s case. In order to ensure more reliable projections adapted to the Lithuanian context, based on official statistical data, the State Data Agency, together with experts from the Centre for Demographic Research and Expertise, has prepared projections for the resident population in Lithuania for 2026–2100.
Projections have been made by modelling various scenarios of demographic development in the country, based on the experience of Lithuania and other European countries. The scenarios include both deterministic assumptions and probabilistic assessments, allowing for the estimation of projection errors and expected ranges of results. After evaluating 12 different scenarios for fertility, mortality, and migration, ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, the most likely scenario (average fertility, average mortality, and average net migration) has been chosen. The Agency recommends that the results of this scenario be used by state institutions and other data users in their planning and analysis activities.
A slow decline in population is projected for 2026–2100
By the beginning of 2050, Lithuania will have 2 million 680.2 thousand permanent residents, i.e., by 210.4 thousand (7.3 per cent) fewer than at the beginning of 2025; respectively, at the beginning of 2075, 2 million 389 thousand (by 501.6 thousand (17.4 per cent) fewer); at the beginning of 2100, 2 million 152.2 thousand (by 738.4 thousand (25.5 per cent) fewer).
Resident population structure
During the projected period, the number of women in the country will remain higher than the number of men. At the beginning of 2050, there will be by 75.5 thousand more women than men (1 million 377.8 thousand and 1 million 302.4 thousand respectively); at the beginning of 2075, by 30.9 thousand more (1 million 210 thousand and 1 million 179 thousand respectively); at the beginning of 2100, by 38 thousand more (1 million 95.1 thousand and 1 million 57.1 thousand respectively). At the beginning of 2050, women will account for 51.4 per cent of all resident population (1,057 women per 1,000 men); respectively, at the beginning of 2075, 50.6 per cent (1,026 women per 1,000 men); at the beginning of 2100, 50.9 per cent (1,035 women per 1,000 men).
Population structure by age and demographic pyramid
According to the most likely demographic scenario, by 2100, the total population of Lithuania will consistently decline, and the shape of the country’s population pyramid, reflecting changes in population by sex and age, will increasingly resemble an urn shape.
Urn-shaped demographic pyramids are characteristic of shrinking populations in which the total fertility rate does not ensure the generation change (less than 2.1 children), where the share of young and middle-aged (working-age) population decreases, and the share of elderly population increases. Populations whose demographic pyramids lack a broad base are characterized by high indicators of demographic ageing (a high median age and a high index of ageing). Rapid processes of demographic ageing and a declining share of working-age population will eventually pose challenges to the country’s economic and social development.
Increase in the number of elderly population and decrease in working-age population is projected.
The unfavorable age structure of population will lead to a decline in population and changes in the age structure of population in the coming decades. A negative natural population change (more deaths than births) is expected to persist, and the numbers of working-age people and women of reproductive age will continue to decline. The negative natural increase will be partially compensated by positive net international migration (i.e., more immigrants than emigrants).
Main projected changes:
At the beginning of 2050, there will be 312.2 thousand children aged 0–14 (11.6 per cent of all residents) living in the country; at the beginning of 2075, 261.3 thousand (10.9 per cent); at the beginning of 2100, 241.1 thousand (11.2 per cent of all residents).
In Lithuania, the number of working age (15–64 years) residents will steadily decrease. It is projected that at the beginning of 2050 there will be 1 million 559.9 thousand working-age people, which is 58.2 per cent of all resident population. At the beginning of 2075, the number of this population group is expected to be about 1 million 259.1 thousand, or 52.7 per cent of all residents, and, at the beginning of 2100, 1 million 101 thousand, or 51.2 per cent of all residents. It is estimated that at the beginning of 2050 the number of working-age population will be by 319 thousand fewer than at the beginning of 2025. At the beginning of 2075, the number of this age group population will decrease by 619.7 thousand; at the beginning of 2100, by 777.9 thousand.
The number of elderly people (aged 65 and older) in the country will continue to increase. At the beginning of 2050, this age group will account for about 30.2 per cent of the resident population – over 808 thousand residents. This would be an increase of 204.7 thousand (33.9 per cent), compared with 2025. At the beginning of 2075, people aged 65 and older will account for 36.4 per cent of the resident population; compared with 2025, their number will increase by 265.1 thousand (43.9 per cent). At the beginning of 2100, this group will account for 37.6 per cent of the population – that is by 206.6 thousand (34.2 per cent) more than in 2025.
Fertility and the number of women of reproductive age
The number of women of reproductive age (aged 15–49) will decrease in the projected period. At the beginning of 2050, this group will account for only 33.6 per cent of all women; at the beginning of 2075, 31.2 per cent; at the beginning of 2100, 31.5 per cent.
It is estimated that at the beginning of 2050 there will be 463.5 thousand women of reproductive age – by 134.4 thousand fewer than at the beginning of 2025. At the beginning of 2075, the number of women in this age group will decrease to 377.7 thousand (by 220.2 thousand fewer than in 2025), and, at the beginning of 2100, to 345.3 thousand (by 252.6 thousand fewer).
The decreasing number of women of reproductive age will be one of the factors leading to decline in births in 2026–2100.
Average life expectancy
It is projected that in 2050 life expectancy will be 85.6 years for women, 78.2 years for men; respectively, in 2075, 88.5 for women and 81.7 years for men; in 2100, 90.8 for women and 84.3 years for men. During the projected period, the gap between men’s and women’s life expectancy will continue to narrow (in 2050, 7.4, in 2075, 6.8, in 2100, 6.4).
Review of scenarios and publication of updated projections
The projected population indicators are based on the fertility, mortality and migration dynamic defined in the scenarios, however the assumptions applied do not account for new factors or unexpected threats (geopolitical, climate-change or epidemiological) impact on demographic change. If significant changes in trends occur, it is necessary to review scenarios used in the calculation methodology. The nearest review of the projection scenarios is planned for 2027.
More information on the issue is available:
On the Official Statistics Portal
Watch the broadcast recording on YouTube.
You can find the presentation slides here.
Last updated: 06-01-2026
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